Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Houston? Here's What the Data Says

Cutting through the headlines with real HAR numbers

Published: May 5, 2026 | By Raquel Refuerzo

You've probably heard it all this year. "Wait for rates to drop." "Too many homes on the market." "Is Houston heading for a crash?" The noise is real, and I get it. Everybody has an opinion, but not everybody has the numbers. So let's put the speculation aside and look at what the Houston Association of Realtors data actually says about where this market stands right now, and more importantly, what it means for you.

Whether you're thinking about buying your first home, listing a property you've owned for years, or trying to time your next investment move, here's the honest, data-backed picture for Houston in 2026.

Quick Takeaways

• Houston's housing market has returned to pre-pandemic normal levels, according to HAR Chief Economist Dr. Ted C. Jones
• Active single-family listings are up 15.2% year over year, giving buyers significantly more choices
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting around 6.22% nationally, down nearly half a point from a year ago
• Median home prices dipped slightly to $322,078 in February 2026, while affordability improved for buyers for 16 of the past 19 months
• Sellers who price correctly and present well are still closing, but the days of refusing all concessions are over
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What the HAR Numbers Actually Show Right Now

Let's start with the February 2026 HAR report, which is the most complete data we have heading into spring.

Single-Family Home Sales

Closed sales came in at 5,918, down 2.2% from a year earlier. That sounds like bad news at first glance, but here's what matters more: pending sales jumped 13%, with 7,894 homes going under contract. Pending sales are a leading indicator. They tell you what's coming, not what already happened. That kind of forward momentum going into spring is significant.

Home Prices

The median price for a single-family home landed at $322,078, down 0.9% year over year. The average price rose 2.0% to $415,091. That split tells an interesting story. Entry-level and mid-range homes are seeing slight softening, while higher-end properties are holding firm.

Inventory

Active listings rose 15.2% to 35,128 homes. Months of supply grew to 4.8, up from 4.3 a year ago. For context, a balanced market is generally defined as 5 to 6 months of supply. Houston is sitting right at the edge of that balance point, which is actually a healthy place to be.

Is It a Good Time to Buy in Houston in 2026?

Short answer: yes, and here's why the numbers back that up.

Affordability Has Genuinely Improved

HAR's data shows that affordability improved for buyers in 16 of the past 19 months. Buyers who purchased a median-priced Houston home in February 2026 paid $149 less per month than buyers who closed in February 2025, which adds up to $1,786 in annual savings on the same home. Monthly principal and interest on a median-priced home with a 20% down payment dropped from roughly $1,723 in January 2025 to about $1,561 in January 2026. That's real money back in your pocket every month.

Freddie Mac pegged the 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% as of March 19, 2026, nearly half a point lower than the same week a year ago. Rates aren't at 3%, but the direction of travel matters as much as the number.

You Have More Negotiating Room

Homes are sitting on the market an average of 69 days now, up from 60 days a year ago and the highest since March 2013. That gives you time to do proper due diligence, run a full inspection, and come back with repair requests or price adjustments without feeling like you'll lose the deal overnight.

Sellers are now offering things like closing cost credits, mortgage rate buydowns, and home warranties to attract buyers. These concessions were basically nonexistent during the 2021-2022 frenzy. If you're shopping for a home in Houston right now, those extras are worth thousands of dollars and you should absolutely be asking for them.

Houston Is Back to Normal, Not Crashing

HAR Chief Economist Dr. Ted C. Jones put it directly: "If you are waiting for the Houston housing market to bottom, it already did several years ago and is back to normal levels." Houston sold as many homes in the 12 months ending February 2026 as it did before the pandemic. Compare that to the national picture, where existing home sales are still down nearly 25% from pre-pandemic levels. Houston is outperforming.

For first-time buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, this is one of the more realistic entry points Houston has offered in years. Check out how much house you can afford in Houston in 2026 to run your actual numbers before you start your search.

What Does This Market Mean for Houston Sellers?

The honest answer is that it's still a workable market for sellers, but you need to come in with the right expectations.

Pricing Is Everything Right Now

The days of listing 10% above your neighbor's sale price and waiting for multiple offers are mostly gone in 2026. Houston now has more active single-family listings than at any point since 2012, with inventory peaking at a record 39,490 in July 2025 before settling back. Buyers have choices, and they know it. Homes priced above recent comparable sales are sitting, sometimes for months, and eventually requiring price cuts.

If you're serious about selling, get a current home valuation based on your specific property and neighborhood before you set a price. Citywide averages don't apply to your block.

Presentation Still Drives Results

Well-priced, well-presented homes are still moving. HAR Chair Theresa Hill noted that "buyer interest remains strong, and the increase in showings and pending sales tells us the spring market is already beginning to take shape." The spring season traditionally brings Houston's highest buyer activity, and 2026 is on track to follow that pattern.

Professional photography, sharp staging, and a clean pre-listing inspection go a long way in a market where buyers have the time to compare options carefully. I've seen it firsthand with my own clients. The homes that come out looking polished and priced right are the ones that close cleanly.

Plan for 60 to 90 Days

Sellers who set a realistic timeline will come out fine. Plan for an average of 69 days on market before your first offer, and budget flexibility for some negotiation on price, repairs, or concessions. Sellers who walk in with that mindset are closing successfully. Sellers who refuse all negotiation are watching their listings go stale.

If you're thinking about listing, selling your Houston home for top dollar has a full breakdown of the strategies that are actually working right now.

How Does Houston Compare to the Rest of the Country?

This is worth knowing because the national headlines are often far more alarming than the Houston reality.

Nationally, the housing market is still struggling to recover. U.S. existing home sales plunged 24.8% in the 12 months ending January 2026 compared to the same period in January 2020. Houston is already back to pre-pandemic sales levels. That's a meaningful difference.

Markets like Austin and San Antonio are on Redfin's list of metros most likely to cool further in 2026, partly because they built aggressively during the boom and are now absorbing oversupply. Houston's more measured development pace, combined with its economic diversity across energy, healthcare, aerospace, and logistics, has kept demand steadier.

Nationally, new home sales fell 17.6% to a 587,000 annual pace in January, with a 9.7-month inventory overhang creating serious headwinds for builders. Houston's new construction market is more balanced, and builders are offering competitive incentives including rate buydowns that resale sellers are also starting to match. If you're weighing buying a resale home versus new construction in Houston, the gap in terms, pricing, and flexibility is narrower than it's been in years.

Is Houston a Good Place to Invest in Real Estate in 2026?

For investors, Houston's fundamentals remain strong. Population growth, a diversified job market, and affordability relative to other major metros continue attracting new residents and driving rental demand.

The Rental Math Still Works

HAR's data shows that 48% of Houston renters could afford to lease a single-family home in Q4 2025, up from 45% a year earlier. The average lease for a single-family home is around $2,050 per month. Meanwhile, a median-priced home is now generating monthly mortgage payments around $1,561 for buyers with a 20% down payment. That rent-versus-own dynamic is pushing more people into the buyer pool, which supports both occupant demand and investor exit strategies.

Neighborhoods Behave Differently

Areas near major employment hubs and top school zones are still seeing competitive activity. Inner Loop neighborhoods like Midtown, Montrose, and Greater Heights continue to hold their value and attract strong buyer demand. Suburban communities with good schools are also holding steady.

For investors, the wider metro offers pockets of real value, especially in areas where days on market are longer and sellers are more open to creative terms. Working with someone who tracks hyper-local absorption rates is the difference between finding a solid deal and overpaying.

The Bottom Line: What Should You Do Right Now?

Here's the practical takeaway from all of this data.

If you're a buyer, conditions in 2026 are the most favorable Houston has offered in several years. You have inventory, you have negotiating room, affordability has been improving for over a year, and mortgage rates are meaningfully lower than their 2023 peak. The risk of waiting is that rates trend down further and bring more buyers back off the sidelines, which reduces your current edge.

If you're a seller, the market rewards preparation and realistic pricing. The buyers are there, as the 13% jump in pending sales confirms. Coming in with a sharp price, a clean presentation, and some flexibility on terms is the path to a successful close.

If you're an investor, Houston's economic resilience and rental demand fundamentals continue to make it one of the more stable bets among major Texas metros.

Whatever your situation, the data is pointing in a clear direction: Houston is balanced, not broken. Raquel Refuerzo works with buyers, sellers, and investors across the greater Houston area and brings the kind of hyper-local market knowledge that citywide averages alone can't give you. Reach out and let's talk through what the numbers mean specifically for your next move.

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